“A whale of a tale, hear me lads, a whale of a tale or two”

—

OFFICIAL CFP Rankings:

1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. A&M
4. UGA
5. TTU
6. MISS
7. ORE
8. OU
9. ND
10. BAMA
11. MIA ACC
12. Tulane G5

SHS CFP Rankings 11/16

1. Ohio St
2. UGA
3. IU
4. ORE
5. A&M
6. MISS
7. OU
8. ND
9. TTU
10. BAMA
11. GT ACC
12. Navy G5

As has been the case all season, the first ten teams are the same with just a different order. There is a difference in the ACC and G5 rep but that won’t be decided until the last day of the season. I think up to this point, the CFP is just about as correct as they’ve ever been. The fact that they picked Tulane in the 12th spot shows there is a broader way of thinking with this group than I’ve observed in the past. I’m all for it.

GROUP of FIVE

The AAC is Strong is what I’ve written all season. As weak as the G5’s resume’s look this season, the AAC is by far and away the strongest and it’s only deserving that a team from this conference is the choice at the end.

Obviously, I would’ve loved it to be the Hometown team, but I think that ship has sailed. Maybe it’s still anchored in the harbor, but the last hopes for the playoffs have been loaded in the cargo bay and the Harbor Pilot has given ‘all clear.’ The only chance the ship has from sailing completely away is for a sudden storm to swell and create too much chaos in the open seas.

As of now, there is a but a minute percentage for such a storm to form, but the possibility is there. The Harbor Pilot is well aware of the slight chance of a storm, but he has been around long enough to know that this one won’t turn near severe enough to delay the launch. All points towards “Anchors Away” in just a few hours.

However, seeing that he has been around a long time, he also knows that anything is possible. For this reason, he is calculating one last time what would have to happen to keep this ship–that is carrying the Memphis Tigers playoff hopes–from sailing.

Truth be told, the ‘All Clear’ has been ordered, he’s just double checking the calculations because that’s what a good Harbor Pilot would do. The ship is sailing. Maybe next year Hometown Tigers.

—

Mark my words, this season will have drama at the end. The top ten will change and perhaps one or two of those teams will miss the playoffs. The drama is building just at the right time. Whether it’s the potential chaos in the Power4 amongst the at-large bids or someone from the Group of Five backing into the playoffs, there is still drama to potentially unfold.

From the G5, there is only the AAC.

The AAC is Strong. Repetitive I know, but it’s one of the few drums I’ve been beating this season. Granted, I began doing it in attempt to boost the Tigers playoff resume as I was worried about UNLV and all of the preseason praise they received. If it came down to an 11-1 Memphis or an 11-1 UNLV for the playoff, I wanted to have the case built that “The AAC is Strong.”

To my amazement, the conference didn’t need me at all to defend its strength. They’ve done it themselves. Too well actually as Memphis has been on the wrong end of some competitive in-conference matchups, but my point was proven that the AAC is Strong.

AAC TOP TEAMS

• 8-2 Navy
• 8-2 Tulane
• 9-1 North Texas
• 7-3 East Carolina
• 7-3 South Florida
• 8-3 Memphis

This sort of balance amongst the teams is a product of the strength of the conference. Strength that no other Group of Five can boast at the moment.

The Mountain West is a step below their usual high standard, mostly due to Boise St taking a season long break from winning.

The Sun Belt, which in my opinion is a full tier below the MW and AAC, is also down this season.

CUSA is the same as the Sun Belt in that it would take a perfect regular season record and a P4 win to be considered above a Two-loss AAC champ. The competition isn’t the same.

The AAC is the one strong conference this season that will put out a hardened enough team to compete in the playoffs. If the team doesn’t go through the fires, how can we know it’s strength? Why should it be deemed worthy simply for taking an easier route?

Just because a team has a few more battle scars doesn’t make them unworthy but should a testament to their strength. At this point, I’d take a three loss AAC team over a one loss Sun Belt team or MW champ.

Again, I’ll float the idea of a G5 playoff for the 12th spot. I still like the idea, but only on years where there isn’t a clear-cut choice. I used Boise St as an example.

Next season, they play Oregon and Memphis. If the Broncos go 12-0, they are not only in the playoff but probably ranked 8th or 9th. In this scenario, I would not be in favor of a G5 playoff because I’d want the team that earned it in the regular season to be in automatically and not lose in some fluke playoff game to South Florida.

The playoff only works in a season like this one where there is no one that obviously stands above the rest. While there is a conference that stands above the rest, THE AAC is STRONG, there is not a definitive candidate, and it would seem both fair and entertaining to have a playoff to decide at the end. Or, and this is completely logical, the AAC Champ is the automatic bid this year. Why?

Because the AAC is Strong!

—

POWER FOUR

Now that I’ve cleared the G5 of its drama, bon voyage Hometown Tigers, let’s move to the power4 at-large situation.

This is where the drama is going to be most intriguing. I’m of course speculating in a hopeful way from a completely neutral perspective. My favorite spot to be. I may favor a certain team or take a dig at another but it’s only in the fun of putting a story together. My goal is to be the Swiss Bunker that observes the chaos through a computer screen and never interferes or takes a side.

That said, I do want to see certain teams to get in, but in reality, it’s up to them to win their games.

USC for example, just needs to win the rest of their games and they’ll be in the 12. A Two loss Big Ten Champ would certainly get in. Will they? Well, that’s certainly up to them. Right now, they are on the outside looking in, but a win in Eugene this week and the BIG10 Title would get them in for sure.

There are more than a few of these scenarios. For example, how many three loss SEC teams will there be in the end and how many of those are considered over the likes of a team with an easier road?

Oklahoma for example, is a playoff team. They’ve had one of the toughest roads this season and are the most battle tested and playoff ready. Like all teams, they need to stay healthy, but this OU team is gritty and tough and will stand up against any team. Even at 9-3, OU would be a playoff team over the likes of a second Big12 team.

Good gracious. I heard this scenario this morning trying to convince the listeners to allow a second Big12 team in the playoff and found it amusing. Mostly because the narrow-mindedness of the point that didn’t consider any of the three loss teams as possible playoff teams. “I mean three losses, come on, you had your chance. You should have won more.”

Brushed aside like the peanut shells on a bar top. “No three loss non-conference champion should make the playoff.” Well, I believe I made a fair argument against that when I compared Texas Tech and Mississippi State in a post about Strength of Schedule’s last week. Texas Tech’s #72 SOS to MSU’s #2.

In it, I posed the question, “how many of State’s losses could TTU turn into wins?” A caveat I added was “keep in mind, TTU lost to one of the teams MSU beat,” so in theory, that would be one extra loss that the Bulldogs don’t have. The answer was obvious, no one can possibly know, but it was worth pondering, and if it were worth pondering, then another question forms.

Is that team a true playoff deserving team? If a point can be made comparing them to a six loss SEC school–should a two-loss Texas Tech team even be considered in the conversation?

Yes, a conversation I’ll allow, but to be considered definitively in over a three loss SEC team is preposterous.

–One thing that would allow a longer discussion to letting in a second Big12 team into the playoff would be if Notre Dame lost to Stanford in the last game of the regular season. ND @ Stanford 11/29 10:30 EST on ESPN

One of the last games if not the last game of the regular season. What if Notre Dame loses that one?

Well, on one hand, goodbye Irish, but on the other, who gets in? Honestly it could be a number of teams as there is still too much that is unknown. Even at this late stage in the season which is the fun part.

There are more than a few teams that could have an argument made for them, but none of that is possible until Early, early morning on the East Coast Nov 30th when Stanford shocks the world again and upsets Notre Dame. Franke Reich, Andrew Luck and just enough Palo Alto power gets the win.

Only then could these conversations begin, so I’ll save them for now.

–Alabama is on the ropes in a way. If they lose to Auburn, which is highly unlikely, their week one loss to FSU is going to haunt them. This committee is savvy to those things. I think because of that loss, if Alabama loses to Auburn on the last week, they will not be one of the three-loss SEC teams that will get into the playoff.

There are more of these scenarios and certainly more teams in the power4 worth a look. Truth be told, nothing will be known until it is.

—

“Predicting the Unpredictable” is proving to be true. Not in content, but certainly in title. We have two weeks left in the season, and due to the “unpredictable nature of the sport,” we still do not have a clue how this story will end. Our candidates for the twelve are facing last minute challenges. Nothing can be known until those games are completed.

And of course, after the committee have had their say.

As much as I enjoy rambling into the speculative, I am not “in the room where it happens” as it were. The committee has the final say and to this point, they’ve proven capable to the task. Looking at their twelve choices, I like the official CFP better. Tulane vs Texas Tech in a 12/5 matchup. I like this committee’s style. They won’t be swayed by some two-bit radio host or a penniless writer who both are experts in one thing–their own opinion.

And my opinion is this–one AAC, one ACC, and one BIG12 should make the playoff. No more. Why?

Because that’s what they have earned. Next season, when the playoff goes to sixteen teams, we will have new discussions. Such as, which four loss SEC school should get in over another conferences two loss whatever…

Tides rise and fall. Opinions are what they are. It’s lunchtime.

Find the Humor and Keep on Movin’

Whit W.