“The engineers and technocrats who design and manage these installations have, to some extent, become the victims of their own success.”- James Reason 1990 HUMAN ERROR

Perfection. Who achieves it? Who embodies it? Or where is it evident in our current system? More simply, what is it? A simple definition from my Oxford dictionary says it is a “state or quality of being free from flaws or defects.” So, is that you? It for damn sure is not me nor anything or anyone else that I’ve ever witnessed with these two eyes.

One of the most perfect moments of my life occurred almost exactly seven years ago from today when I was with my bride celebrating five years of marriage on the placid shores of Moraine Lake before dawn. During those precious three hours, it may have felt completely perfect and I’m quite sure I whispered “tranquility personified” to the shining bright eyes that were looking at me. And it was exactly that–tranquil. One of the most still, serene, and uniquely turquoise blue alpine lakes I’ve ever witnessed. Was it perfect? No.

The lake itself was but we mere humans inherently see it as our job to disturb such tranquility with our over-abundant obsession of self and our incessant need to be observed. A child throws a rock into such a lake and shouts with glee at the splash. The reverberations ripple across the once undisturbed waters that seemingly were content with remaining motionless for the time being, and the toddler’s shriek echoes off the rock facings that border its shores. This of course is an example of disturbances that can Add to the perfection as this is just an ‘innocent to the world’ child simply discovering new things. While it does disturb the tranquility of the moment, it does not make it imperfect.

A group of co-eds doing trendy internet dances in skimpy clothing and disturbing the peace of the moment with their overtly ostentatious cacophony of cackles is an example of how us mere humans can add to the deterioration of such a perfect moment for someone else. This is completely within their right, but it does act as an example for how we human’s look to disturb the perfection of the present by adding something deemed ‘important’ by oneself to it.

Perhaps this is just a personal opinion, and the majority of people find these disruptive moments part of the perfection, but I find it as an example of how we humans are flawed. So flawed that we may experience a temporary lapse in judgement from time to time that cause us to, whether it be accidently or well-intended, make errors that disturb the present.

One more example–In the 2022 film “Uncharted,” a ship that has been untouched by a human and preserved for centuries in the seclusion of a hidden secret needs less than a day to be completely destroyed once discovered by mere humans. It’s a fictional example, but one that does the job. We humans have a tendency to create a series of events that lead to failure as if it is our default setting. A “concatenation of latent human failures” as Reason writes in the epilogue. Hopefully, this fictional example relieves some feelings if the previous hit a little close to home.

So, what is my point? Humans are far from perfect. All of us. Yet, many find themselves grappling with their own pride that tells them otherwise, and it is this pride that leads to ALL human errors. There is no remedy for it. Pride will overcome each of us from time to time and we will fail. So, we have to allow for Human Error. Pobody’s Nerfect.

• Allow for Human Error

This has been a roundabout way to get to a point about how we need each other. Not one of us has the answers to life’s tests. We all may have one or two of the answers, but no one has them all. If one thinks that they do–“pride comes before the fall.” Allow for Human Error.

Now, it’s here that I could take this a myriad of places to make different points but being that this is a sport’s site and not a philosophical one, let’s get to the sports related point. Although, sports and philosophy are effectively concurrent. Just ask any good coach.

Humans play the games, humans coach the players, humans get paid to talk about the coaches coaching the players, and fans talk about all three for free. Because fans trust their own opinion so much that they feel the need to wager on such a belief, the majority of humans end up losing money on such games that are again played, coached, announced, and let’s not forget officiated by us mere humans. Humans that will constantly make errors.

So, wager on sports if you wish. “Wager for fun, not to retire.” But do so with the knowledge that human error is a very real thing. Those errors may be petty like disturbing the peace of an alpine lake at dawn or catastrophic like dropping an ancient wooden ship out of the sky and smashing it into splinters, but either way, the errors might cost you.

In sports betting, these human errors, unpredictable as they may be–must be taken into account.

I came across James Reason’s HUMAN ERROR by way of Michael Lewis’ FIFTH RISK. Both books are worth reading, but FIFTH RISK is a must read, and I believe an important book for our time. Word on the street is that it will be made into a comedic docuseries on Netflix, so the masses will get to know it then. The book gives examples of humans in our system that look for these sorts of unpredictable risks so to have a plan in place if the “fifth risk” down on the list does come to fruition. It’s a fascinating read. The prologue will be polarizing to some. Remember, leave ego at the door. Rather, take that ego out back and shoot it.

The overall point is this–I don’t know too many wise people that still wager on sports without first consulting other people that may know more than themselves and accounting for these human errors. The odds are still not great that the wager will win, but the chances to improve minutely.

Further, I don’t know many wise people that still wager on sports. Sports gambling is a system that has become a “victim of its own success.” “Engineers and technocrats” have designed it. Being that these clever creators are also mere humans, errors must be expected from such a system. Errors for which there is no technological remedy. Whether accidental or purposeful, errors will occur.

So, watch sports, or don’t. Gamble on sports, or don’t. Either way, leave your ego out of the equation. Human errors will trump everything given the opportunity. It’s up to us mere humans to navigate these imperfections with humility. We can all help each other. I might have an answer that another does not and vice versa. As long as humans recognize the errors that might come along, continue to collaborate to keep such errors contained, and be selfless enough to admit when the error is theirs, then this system has a chance to Not become “a victim of its own success.”

However, the larger something grows, the more likely it is to be prone to error. Sports betting has swelled to nearly a 150 billion dollar industry here in the United States according to “The Legal Sports Report,” which is a significant jump up from 2023. Errors accidental or intentional will occur with such a bloating industry. Some may feel that they can profit off these errors–I’m not willing to risk it.

“it leaves these systems prey to the one hazard for which there is no technological remedy: the insidious concatenation of latent human failures that are an inevitable part of any large organisation.” Reason

We all fail daily. No one is perfect. No, not even you. I guess we are all mere humans after all. Be kind to a neighbor.

ONE FINAL WORD

• Here’s an off-the-cuff idea, take that $50 you would lose by betting on Texas to win the 2025 National Championship and serve your neighbor with it. Share a meal. Hell, take them out to dinner. Let’s use our resources to better to our fellow humans within our sphere, and not some fat cat Sports Wagering Site CEO.

To present the rounded argument, let me say this–there are those that would say, “I’d take the $50 and turn it into $200 and then serve my neighbors with half of the winnings.” This would in theory be better for you and your neighbor. However, “theory will only take you so far.” Sometimes you have to get like Alvarez and actually do the math. Shameless “Oppenheimer” plug. The math says that you will most likely not turn that fifty into two hundred. The math says, you will most likely lose that $50 and then lose another $200 trying to win the original fifty back and not have a nickel left for your neighbor.

So, then you’re left with the choice to a) not serve your neighbor or b) serve them with far less. Truth is that the loss of the money might leave you bitter and selfish and serving other humans might be the last thing one might want to do as the losses due to such errors create victims not compassionates.

This is of course hypothetical and perhaps hyperbolic, but I am one of these human types like you. We all need to help each other. Nobody’s Perfect.

College Football returns in 28 hours. Allow for human error. Nothing in our system is “free from flaws or defects.”

Find the Humor and Keep on Movin’

Whit W.