Group of Five Path to the Playoff.

The following was written on October 27th. If you haven’t read it yet, it may help to add context.

I’ll have a brief word updating the post at the end.

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At this point in the season, it’s worth asking the question–who feasibly can make the playoffs from the Group of Five conferences? This could get tricky by the end. Regular readers will know where I’m going to lead–The Hometown Team is my pick to make the playoff. Yes, but I will be fair and present all of the teams that could make it. Perhaps, there is another that is more deserving by the season’s end, but I believe the representative in the playoff to come from the following list:

Navy 7-0
Memphis 7-1
North Texas 7-1
Tulane 6-1
South Florida 6-2
UNLV 6-1
San Diego St 6-1
Boise St 6-2
James Madison 6-1

NAVY

Navy is 7-0. Their best win so far is at Temple 32-31. Still on the schedule:

11/8 at Notre Dame
11/15 vs South Florida
11/27 at Memphis

Plenty of time for Navy to leave their mark on this season. Win out and they are the G5 rep. End of story.

MEMPHIS

Memphis has a rough loss on the schedule at UAB. They will have to be perfect the rest of the way, but the path is still there despite the road loss to the rivals 2.5 hours southeast. Playing in Birmingham has always been tricky for the Hometown team. The Blazers nicked us again. That said, Memphis boasts wins over Arkansas and South Florida already and with Navy and Tulane still on the schedule, there is still time to add to the resume.

11/7 vs Tulane
11/27 vs Navy

An 11-1 Memphis side with wins over good-to-great Navy, USF, and Tulane–and a win over an SEC opponent will be tough to leave out of the playoff. One game at a time.

NORTH TEXAS

One loss to South Florida 63-26. The Mean Green are one of many teams to beat up on Washington St. Other than that they do not have a win that impresses me. They host Navy this weekend at Noon. If they lose that they are out of the conversation for sure. With a win, they will have a prayer, but only a prayer as they lack any kind of strength of schedule.

TULANE

Tulane has one loss, but to one of the strongest teams in the country, Mississippi. They’ve got wins over 5-2 Northwestern and 4-3 Duke. Tulane travel to Memphis 11/7, but other than that the games will not boost their Resume. This has been consistently as solid of a team in G5 this season. However, the nature of the beast is they are as likely to win out as they are to lose 2-3 more games.

USF

Two losses for the Bulls, but respectable ones to Memphis and Miami. They have wins over Boise St, at Florida, and North Texas. I think they will be in the conversation if another team trips up and they win the rest of their games. At Navy on 11/15 should be feisty.

UNLV

The Running Rebels blew their chance to get a stranglehold on the G5 spot when they lost to Boise last week. That said, they have a win over UCLA and boast four one score wins. New Mexico, Nevada, Utah St, Hawaii, and Colorado St are the remaining games on their schedule. None of which will boost them towards the playoffs. In fact, UNLV needs to win out and requires Memphis, Navy and Tulane to lose for them to enter the playoff conversation in my opinion.

SAN DIEGO ST

This team has quietly been impressive. They’ve got a bad loss to Washington St, but other than that they have pitched three shutouts including one over 5-3 Cal. One notable scoreline was their 6-3 win over Northern Illinois. A game that they won as time expired on a twenty-five-yard field goal.

The Aztecs could be in the conversation if they win out, but I don’t see a quality win for them to hang their hat on to offset the loss.

SDSU @ Boise 11/15

BOISE ST

Two losses: Notre Dame and South Florida. Best win is UNLV. I think the Broncos are out of the equation, but they are worth a mention since they are basically the greatest G5 of all time. Name recognition will keep them in contention, but this is not the year of the Bronco.

JAMES MADISON

One loss to ranked Louisville in a game in which they competed, so that won’t hold them back, but let’s take a peek at the seven wins.

5-3 Old Dominion would be their best win, and the rest of the wins are against these records:

James Madison needs massive help to make the CFP, but in theory, if they win out and Memphis, USF, Tulane, Navy, UNLV, and San Diego St all lose, the Dukes could have a shot. I seriously, seriously doubt they will be the team, but since they have a mathematical shot, I gave them a mention.

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Any of these teams technically have a chance. We will just have to keep watching.

END OCTOBER 27th

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BEGIN Today: Well, Memphis, USF, Tulane, Navy, UNLV, and San Diego St all lost in the past two weeks, so that gives James Madison the improbable shot to make the playoffs. However, the Dukes truly lack anything that resembles a quality win and still need help to make the playoff.

JMU close with 4-5 App St, 4-5 Washington St, and 6-3 Coastal Carolina. Winning all of these by 30+ points would make a strong case for them.

For me, South Florida has done the most and is the most deserving given their schedule. North Texas is my second choice at this point.

But if everyone continues to beat each other in G5, the three loss Broncos of Boise St may just back into the playoffs.

If I can be so bold, whoever the G5 rep ends up being is going to lose their first-round game. There just isn’t a worthy team this year in the Group of Five. Maybe USF if the matchup is right. For example, if USF gets to play Mississippi in the first round, I think the Bulls would compete.

Who knows?

I’s Monday afternoon and I’m just rattling.

South Florida is at Navy and North Texas is at UAB at Noon on Saturday. Let’s see if they can survive the weekend.

–What are the chances that a three loss G5 makes the playoffs? I would’ve said zero two weeks ago, but now I’m not so sure. Even a two-loss team seemed like a stretch.

Who will be the one that “survives the wreck”?

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Find the Humor and Keep on Movin’

Whit W.

G5 PATH to the PLAYOFF UPDATE